Tuesday, February 28, 2012

You can play without a 3rd baseman, right?

Spring Training was previously characterized by positive bullpens from Dallas Braden and a rather petite Brett Anderson, the plethora of young faces descending on to Phoenix Municipal Stadium, and the highly publicized arrival of "the" Manny Ramirez as he vocally proclaimed his new found optimism towards the game. And it seemed as though the first day of full workouts would be mundane and ordinary. But as Scott Sizemore was routinely fielding ground balls at third, something odd occured. An awkward step. A twist. A turn. An "audible pop" was heard by onlookers as Sizemore immediately collapsed in excruciating pain. He was helped off of the field and the mood around camp suddenly took a dreary turn. Two days later it was made official to the public that Scott Sizemore, at the one position Oakland could least afford to lose, had torn his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) within the first hour of the first day of full workouts and he would effectively miss the 2012 season.
Only in Oakland, folks
Now with Sizemore missing the 2012 season, a very relevant question arises: Who is Oakland's starting 3rd baseman in 2012? After an offseason where most were fretful of how a major league outfield would come into exsistance for the Athletics and who would be proclaimed the starting DH and 1B now has to worry about fielding a major league thrid baseman... In late February. There is a lengthy list of possible suitors of which Oakland can choose from. But are any even qualified to produce in the major leagues? Let's take a look at the candidates:
I will combine Eric Sogard and Adam Rosales for the sole reason of both being the epitome of utility infielders. Trademarked by his choice of optical flair, Sogard has had a sucsessful minor league career batting .300/.391 and .298/.381 in 2010 and 2011. The sucsess has not caught up to him in the majors, however, batting .200/.243 stepping to the plate 74 times in 2011. Not to mention Sogard's K% ballooned to 17.8% in Oakland. While Sogard needs far more ABs to make a permanent verdict, he'd be more inclined to take to the utility role in 2012. Rosales could be characterized by his unique choice of choosing to sprint around the bases during his homeruns. This characteristic has endeared him to fans, but his numbers remain less than desirable. He took the honor of having a team worst WAR in 2011 (-1.0) batting a mere 7-61. Rosales, frankly, wouldn't have a major league bat to survive 140+ games at 3rd. The team has already stated that they viewed Rosales and Sogard has utility players in 2012 so don't anticipate seeing those glasses or Rosales sprinting around the basepaths very frequently in 2012.
Next up is the BYU product, Stephen Parker. Parker captured attention in AA Midland last season hitting .286/.373 playing in 132 games at 3rd. He was called up to play with the AAA club in Sacramento late in the season and batted .320 in 27 plate appearances. An area of concern, however, is his strikeout rate. He had a 18.6 K% in Midland that could easily grow to a 20+% in Sacramento and the majors. While Parker will most likely play in some spring training games with the major league club, he'll most likely start off in Sacramento.
Next is a non-roster invite, Wes Timmons. The former Braves darling played with Atlanta's AAA club for 5 seasons (2006-2010) and didn't have a single season with a strikeout rate of 8.7%. He played for Midland and Sacramento last season and hit .365/.402 and .321/.432 in Oakland's minor league system. He also was able to draw a 13.0 BB% compared to his miniscule 4.3 K%. He possesses the ability and major league intangibles to preform in Oakland next season and with Sizemore's injury he could seize his chance.
But the seemingly leading candidate is none other than former A's catcher, Josh Donaldson. With the addition of Derek Norris and Anthony Recker looking to become the backup to Suzuki in 2012, Donaldson added third base to his resume. Donaldson hit .261/.344 in Sacamento last season with a K rate over 20%. But apparently his metrics, as reported by Susan Slusser, improved at thrid in the minors and when he played thrid in the domincan winter league. The team seems to support Donaldson with his switch and he has shown monumental signs of improvement in camp.
The team has been rumored of possibly looking at Felipe Lopez or even Miguel Tejada to make a return to Oakland. But most recently with Sizemore's injury being season ending, the possibility of adding Alberto Callaspo presents itself to Oakland. Callaspo, the Angels thrid baseman, hit .288/.366 in 2011 while compiling a 3.6 WAR and 7.8 UZR in 475 PA. He also reflects Timmons' plate discipline with a minute 9.0 K% in Anaheim last season, but he trumps Timmons as far as major league experience. Callaspo seems extremely inticing, however, Oakland and Anaheim aren't exactly the most willing teams to comply in late February. And Oakland would not give Anaheim a multitude of talent as Callaspo would be a one year fix. Callaspo might be a difficult reality for Oakland.
With numerous possibilities, the race to claim thrid base promises to be a spirited exhibition within the organization as the spring continues to unfold.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Season Preview

It's that time of year again! Spring training is on the horizon for the Oakland Athletics and with that comes a new season featuring a rejuvenated and renovated ballclub. To say that the offeseason in Oakland was eventful is an understatement. Fans witnessed Cahill, Breslow, Gonzalez, Sweeney, Moscoso, Outman and Bailey depart and saw a plethora of youthful faces migrate to the coliseum which included Cowgill, Parker, Norris, Reddick, Smith, Cook, Peacock, Milone, and Cole. Oakland has been busy on the free agent front as well signing Bartolo Colon, Jonny Gomes, and making a splash in the international market by signing Yoenis Cèspedes. The A's managed to resign Coco Crisp as well to a rather horendous 2 year/ 14 million dollar contract. Rumors are also suggesting that Oakland's offeseason acquisitions may not cease. Oakland apparently intends to sign another reliever such as Mike Gonzalez or trade for Koji Uehara. And of course, Manny Ramirez. But without further ado, here's my season preview of the 2012 Oakland Athletics

OUTFIELDERS:
The one single position that presented the most perplexing challenge entering the offseason was the outfield, which was setting itself up to become led by Ryan Sweeney, Michael Taylor, and Jermaine Mitchell. Now as spring training approaches, the outfield is still undecided, but now purely for the reason of having acquired too many outfielders. The starting regular that returns is Coco Crisp. Crisp utalized his specialty (Speed) and collected 49 stolen bases, which tied him for the AL lead once the season was complete. Coco's ability to hit won't dazzle critics (.264 avg/.314 OBP), but capabilities on the basepaths and in the outfield make him a useful tool. One might question a resign of Crisp after we managed to piece together a legitimate outfield. And a 14 million dollar contract is a gross overpayment. But, Crisp can can develop into a valuable trade possibility at the deadline.
Joining the green and gold via the Bailey trade, Josh Reddick becomes a wonderful addition to Oakland as the A's enter a period of adjustment. Reddick mystified Boston fanatics in his 87 games in 2011. He compiled a 1.9 WAR playing in 10 fewer games than Jemile Weeks collecting a .280/.323 statline along the way. Reddick becomes a fantastic defensive replacement to DeJesus as well, he amassed a 5.9 UZR playing 43 fewer games than DeJesus in RF. Look for much needed consistency from the former Bean town starling in 2012.
By relinquishing Moscoso and Outman to Colorado, Oakland gained another consistent chip to compliment their outfield chemistry. Seth Smith, famed for being Eli Manning's backup QB at Ole Miss and the last out of the 2007 world series, is taking his talents to the coliseum. Smith, who has a club option through 2014, hit .299 with a .356 OBP against righties last season and has hit .290 against righties over the duration of his career. I obstain from mentioning his statistics against lefties primarily for the reason that will not be utilized against them (He has a career .202 avg against lefties for his career). Someone who will be used exclusively for lefties is Petaluma native, Jonny Gomes. Gomes has a career 13-45 line in Oakland and hit .311 with a .407 OBP in just under 100 ABs against lefties in 2011. Gomes is likely to earn time at DH as well and will attract his usual fanclub to Oakland.
Cèspedes shocked the collective baseball world by selecting Oakland as his destination to showcase his talents on a major league stage. As previously stated, Cèspedes is a freakish athlete that hit .333/.424 in his last professional season and hit .458 in 6 WBC games in 2009. He possesses unparalleled talent defensively and can blossom into a legitimate all-star. There will be a period of adjustment in becoming acquainted with major league pitching, but Cèspedes' can make an immediate impact on Oakland's outfield corps.
Future outfielders still have yet to debut such as Choice, Green, and Mitchell. With this established nuecleus that Oakland has developed, the foundation has been set for competitive success with the Oakland athletics.


INFIELDERS:
Of course headlining the infield is Jemile Weeks. Weeks had a exemplarary rookie showcase hitting .303 (The best among 2nd basemen) and an OBP has eclipsed .340. Replacing Oakland's veteran, Mark Ellis, Jemile electrified Oakland with his exuberant style of play and he appealed as an endearing character with his humility. While his defense must improve (-4.1 UZR in 97 games), he still remains a spark plug for the White elephants. Most experts expect a sophomore slump from Weeks, however I personally disagree. While opposing pitchers may grow more accustom to Weeks, stating he'll decrease to hitting barely above .260 is outrageous. His average could decrease to .290 or .280, but Weeks remains a figure of importance in Oakland.
Cliff Pennington suffered a terribly lackluster campaign in 2011. His defense steadily declined (9.9 UZR in 2010/-5.2 UZR in 2011) and his normally stalwart production regressed as he committed atrocious errors. Pennington does provide relatively consistent offense, batting somewhere around .260 to .275 with a .320 to .335 OBP. Pennington recently stated, however, that he feels as though he's a .300 hitter. While this has yet to become reality, at least Cliff presents confidence. Pennington's defense should restore itself to some sort of it's 2010 form and with no challengers at shortstop, get comfortable with Cliff in 2012. In quite possibly the steal of 2011 for the Oakland Athletics, Beane swapped a below average reliever, David Purcey, for his soon to be starting 3rd basemen, Scott Sizemore. Sizemore, normally acclaimed at 2nd base, had to adjust to life at the "hot corner" and his struggles showed (-6.0 UZR), however, he still managed to preform dazzling plays taking his post on the left side of the infield. Sizemore (.245/.342) will become our best hitter with RISP due to Willingham's departure. RISP seemed to be Sizemore's specialty (86 ABs, .360 avg, .481 OBP). This uncanny ability to produce with RISP earned him a 1.55 clutch rating, which would've been the 6th best in all of baseball if he qualified for the minimum number of ABs. This production will be crucial in a potential dark horse run for Oakland as The A's look to Sizemore for consistent leadership.
First base welcomes an intriguing competition as Daric Barton and Brandon Allen square off for supremacy. Allen claimed the starting role after Barton was sent down to Sacramento and Allen promptly became a momentary phoenom beginning his Oakland career hitting 11-30 in
a 10 game honestand. Allen than began to suffer eventually barely keeping himself above the Mendoza line and finished with a collective .277 OBP. Where Allen trumps Barton in power, Barton trumps Allen in consistency. Barton, while hitting a dismal .212 avg and an average .325 OBP, he still maintained a 13.9% BB rate. Barton hit .273/.393 just in 2010 and he, very much like Pennington, possesses defensive capabilities that dwindled in 2011 (11.2 UZR in 2010/ 1.9 UZR in 2011). Look for a solid season from #10 and for him to snatch the starting role back from Allen. Unlike the outfield, the infield remains virtually similar to last year's. Prepare for improvement as each player gains much needed experience at their respective positions.

PITCHERS:
The offseason saw leaders on the starting staff such as Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Andrew Bailey get traded for prospects. Two more
starting pitchers were sent to Colorado for Seth Smith in Moscoso and Outman. However, pitching still remains quite a large point of emphasis in 2012 as visions of a new rotation begins to shape.
Becoming Oakland's de facto #1 starter in 2012 is Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy's sense of humor and tremendous preformance on the mound quickly classified him as a fan favorite. McCarthy led the AL in FIP and ranked among the elite in BB/9 (2.86 FIP/1.32 BB/9). His outstanding control was a welcome addition to a lineup that contained two of the top 3 pitchers in the AL in terms of walks (Cahill and Gio). McCarthy is set to build apon his breakout 2011 and continue his success into 2012
Oakland made some headlines when they signed former AL Cy Young winner, Bartolo Colon, to a one year deal. Colon, who is 39, is far past his prime and showing noticeable signs of fatigue in August and September last season. However, when rested, Colon put up surprisingly consistent numbers Pre all-star break (3.20 ERA/ 1.14 WHIP). Oakland's plan seems to be to start Colon in the first half and then deal him to reintroduce Brett Anderson into the rotation.
Dallas Braden returns after making just three 2011 starts. Braden has not had a ERA or FIP above 3.90 in the past 3 seasons and promises to mentor the youth on the pitching staff as he did with Gio. Braden's return will be a joyous one for the Oakland faithful, witnessing their own bay area native on the mound once again.
Tom Milone figures to solidify a starting role in 2012. Acquired in the Gio trade from Washington, Milone's minor league numbers seem ludacris. He collected 155 strikeouts to 16 walks. He has drawn comparisons to Dallas Braden and his accuracy will be welcome for a team that started Trevor Cahill in 2011.
The fifth spot in the rotation must be decided in spring training. The candidates figure to be Tyson Ross, who sustained a debilitating injury that derailed his 2011, Graham Godfrey, who's FIP numbers seem to suggest success in the majors, and Brad Peacock, acquired in the Gio trade as well and who's FIP numbers dangerously increased from AA to AAA.
With others such as Jarrod Parker and AJ Cole to make impacts in years to come, the revamped rotation seems to be prepared for it's first test in 2012
With the departure of Andrew Bailey, the bullpen is without their two time all-star. The search for a new closer begins with Grant Balfour. Balfour has become infamous for his antics on the mound and his veteran leadership. The austrailian finished with a 2.47 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a .232 BABIP. He also was one of the AL leaders in holds as Oakland's set-up man in 2011.
Two other reasonable candidates for the closer role are Fautino De Los Santos and Joey Devine. Devine seemed to have a fantastic first half, holding opposing batters to a .195 avg. But very much like Tyson Ross, Devine suffered an injury and struggled to regain his consistency in the minors. Devine returns as a frontrunner for the closer role. De Los Santos also baffled the opposition early in the season, holding opponents to a .158 average in the first half. However, his inexperience reared it's head towards the end of the season. De Los Santos was only a rookie and he had an incredibly limited sample size (33.1 IP)
The bullpen will be solidified by those previously mentioned and Blevins, Fuentes, Carignan, Norberto and Cook. Rumors also suggest that Mike Gonzalez or Koji Uehara could be added before spring training begins.

CATCHERS:
Kurt Suzuki enters 2012 as it seems as though he will be replaced relatively soon with the addition of Derek Norris. When this transition to the Suzuki to Norris era is unknown, but it shall most likely occur at some point before or during the 2013 season. Suzuki had a dismal 2011 hitting at a frustrating .237 mark with a .301 OBP. To give you an idea of how terrible those numbers were, Conor Jackson possessed a better average and OBP than Suzuki. Suzuki did set a personal best for runners caught stealing, however, he also set a personal record for runners allowed to steal as well. Suzuki still promises to be a veteran presence in the clubhouse and a leader on and off the field. Recker will most likely be Suzuki's backup in 2012 and does not expect to make an impact. Derek Norris is nowhere near the majors at this moment in time, but very well could make an impression in 2013.

VERDICT:
The A's began 2011 with high hopes and monumental goals of upsetting the Texas Rangers and winning the AL West. That plan hopelessly failed as Oakland finished a deflating 74-88 campaign. With departures of Cahill, Gio, and Bailey afterwards, most fans felt alienated by the management and excepted a lackluster 2012 season. However, when reflecting apon the offseason, the team seems to have strengthened. The outfield and pitching staff has added notable talent that has given us a foundation in which to compete in future years to come. The infield and bullpen remain somewhat similar and continue to develop. And realistically, Baseball can be measured in statistics, however, it is somewhat of an imperfect science. It is also very much determined by a player's personal ideology. If a team such as Oakland can establish a strong sense of team unity and believe in a overall goal, they can exceed expectations. Am I saying that Oakland will win the world series or make the playoffs in 2012? Not nessescarilly. However, I believe for a team that easily could have been .500 in 2011 if not for being 25th in UZR and 2nd in all of baseball in errors, an 81 win season is achievable. As for my prediction: I believe maturation will be nessescary for The A's to compete with the elite in baseball, but I believe Oakland has a legitimate chance at their first +.500 season since 2006. FINAL RECORD: 83-79
And feel free to surprise me, Oakland.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Viva Cèspedes! Viva Manny?

On the morning of February 13th, 2012 the A's accomplished a feat that was unpresedently uncharacteristic of a front office who embraces an ideology such as Oakland's. They received a commitment from one of the most highly sought after free agents in the international market and in all of baseball, Yoenis Cèspedes. Out of Detroit, Baltimore, and the local option, Miami, he chose Oakland. And no, Cèspedes is not a pitcher... Oakland has long disenchanted elite free agents with their spacious confines and has gained a somewhat detrimental reputation as a pitchers paradise. And while Cèspedes might be oblivious to this reputation, Oakland still managed to sign the Cuban superstar to a 4 year/ 36 million dollar contract. He'll be with Oakland through the 2015 season (Unless Beane trades him for value when he comes to the realization that he most likely will not be able to resign him). Cèspedes has grown a cult following in the states for his famed "Yoenis Cespedes: The showcase" video and the sequel "Yoenis Cespedes: Encore" which depict Yoenis performing his ridiculous training routine that included a 45" inch and a 50" inch box jump, a 6.3 second 60 yard run, 1300 lb leg press, a 510 lb squat, and a 350 lb bench. He is undoubtedly a freakish athlete (Who may or may not be influenced by PEDs...). His stats are equally as mindboggling. He hit .333 with a .424 OBP in his last professional season including tying the Cuban HR record at 33. Kevin Goldstein described Cèspedes as "arguably the best Cuban player to come out in a generation". And he's an Oakland athletic.
Obviously Cèspedes, who hasn't seen a single MLB pitch in his life, will have a massive period of adjustment, however he still is expected to succeed at the major league level. Cèspedes figures to start immediately in the east bay, which was a predominant selling point in Oakland's persuasion to lure him to Bay Area. However, because of this there seems to be an imminent confrontation for the starting Center fielder between Crisp and Yoenis. Melvin has stated that he believes Crisp is "one of the best Center Fielders in baseball". The battle in spring training promises to be one of the most entertaining in years. But regardless, Oakland has stolen an international phoenom from the rest of
major league baseball. Fans have the right to be optimistic and rejoice at witnessing this highly touted professional transferring his respective talents to the coliseum. So welcome the newest member of the Oakland athletics! Or is he?...
Reports this morning stated that the A's were "likely" to sign the one... The only... The noutorious... Manny Ramirez. Rumors connecting Manny to Oakland have been swirling around social media since January. A signing of Ramirez would very much support the franchise
tradition of signing a veteran (See Matsui, Thomas, Giambi) that has become a common occurrence in recent years. Ramirez brings a historical pedigree as one of the best right handed hitters in major league history collecting career statistics such as a .312 avg, 555 HRs,
and a .411 OBP. While Ramirez might turn 40 in May, he still retains fantastic abilities, hitting .261/.420 with the White Sox and .311/.405 with the dodgers in 2010. There are numerous aspects of negativity that could potentially arise in Oakland if and when Ramirez is present. The phrase "Manny being Manny" has become synonymous with narcissism, mischief, selfishness, and now scandal. Ramirez was suspended for 50 games for violating the leagues drug policy in 2010. And in 2011, Ramirez retired in a public spectacle after playing 5 games in Tampa Bay for having to face a 100 game suspension for violating the leagues drug policy yet again. Ramirez had now resurfaced, and if rumors are any indication, he'll be wearing green and gold in 2012. Ramirez' suspension was lessened to 50 games and would return in mid-June. But numerous questions arise with the arrival of a figure such as Manny. One could theorize that Ramirez could be cancerous to an unstable clubhouse that must establish unity. And to describe Ramirez as a "team player" is not the most accurate statement one could make. But if anything, he could accompany Chili Davis as some sort of a second hitting coach. And a .400 OBP is still possibly achievable for Manny.
These moves have set the stage for a fascinating spring training. The outfield (Cèspedes, Crisp, Gomes, Smith, Reddick), the DH (Kila, Carter, Manny, Allen), and first base (Barton and Allen) all must be decided. So prepare for some monumental competitiveness in Phoenix when pitchers and catchers (February 18th) and position players (February 24th) report. Be on the lookout for my season preview this Friday. Thanks for the read
-Chris K